Holiday Observations, Predictions and Recommendations

As experts and analysts fine-tune their predictions for the upcoming online holiday season, marketers are ramping up promotional efforts to capitalize on the ever-growing number of online shoppers. By some estimates, over a third of U.S. households (nearly 37 million) will have shopped online by year's end. Merchants have cause to be optimistic. In fact, a new study from Shop.org and BizRate found 98 percent of merchants expect online sales growth this year.

As the industry celebrates its 10th anniversary, there's a sense this year is unlike any before. It is. Message bombardment, growth of and conflict between integrated marketing efforts, sp@m, the political and economic environment, and increased focus on return on investment (ROI) make this holiday season somewhat different. That said, I offer you some 2004 holiday observations, predictions, and recommendations. I hope they help you optimize your current and future marketing efforts in this evolving marketing place.

The Early Bird Catches the Worm

Conventional wisdom defines the holiday season as the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas. The Shop.org/BizRate study finds online consumers are more likely to start holiday shopping earlier than offline consumers. Over half (53 percent) of respondents indicated they planned to begin their holiday shopping by early October. Yet only 14 percent of merchants expected to launch their online holiday marketing promotions by that time.

Despite 10 years of online experience and planning, marketers still to poorly time their efforts. Although shoppers are starting early, more than 72 percent of marketers indicate they plan to begin holiday marketing at the same time as they did last year. It's a competitive marketplace. Get out there early and strong before your competitors do.

Sp@m, the Relevance Reality

Increasingly, sp@m is less about permission and more about a message's relevance and overall value. Consumers will end plain-vanilla relationships as top merchants set the bar higher on timely, relevant marketing this holiday season. Focus on keeping profitability at optimal levels. Smart marketers will shy away from blanket and shipping calls to action. Instead, they'll leverage knowledge and data they have about customers to build more relevant, timely communications that elicit response.

Think Long Term

Marketers will continue to invest in driving sales this holiday season. Yet how many will build strategic programs designed to capture and retain those customers after the all-important Q4 push? True, search will play an increasing role in driving comparison shoppers to purchase. But how many retailers focus on retaining new customers brought in by search by using a relevant, integrated e-mail retention strategy? Too few, in my experience as an online shopper.

Marketers must think beyond tactics to reach overall sales results and instead create long-term, emotional customer relationships. Try something innovative or outrageous that directly ties into or supports your core differentiators: loyalty promotions, out-of-the-box customer appreciation offers, gifts, and so on. What's your tootsie roll this year? Make it easy, and obtain that e-mail address by offering value.