eROI Predictions for 2005

In an effort for all of us to remember some of these insightful and important predictions (especially #4 and #3), we went with the beloved Top10 format.

10. Sp@m will be much more strictly self-governed by major ISPs and corporations (much faster than federal or state laws).
ISPs like AOL, Yahoo, MSN and others have become more sophisticated of who they allow access to their email-hosted recipients. Similar to the multi-color terrorism alert system, major ISPs have multiple access levels for email senders to access the recipient's junk folder or inbox and how it is labeled on the back-end. Following email marketing best practices (rather than simply adhering to the light restrictions of CAN-SP@M) will be rewarded with better performing results in both the short term and long term.

9. Database marketing will be more prevalent in small to mid-size businesses.
Online tools and expertise are much more affordable now. Emerging businesses will take advantage of intelligent online database marketing for a few thousand dollars to accomplish what Amazon.com spent $billions to do. Look for more companies to recommend a product based on a similar product you purchased from them last month.

8. Email addiction is on the rise.
The advent of wireless Internet access and mobile access at every coffee shop and in most office environments is having a dramatic impact on our culture and the way we live and work. Marketers that take advantage of optimizing email for different platforms (HTML / text vs. mobile SMS) will see higher loyalty and adoption rates. We have our own SMS project in Beta for 2005 deployment as well.

7. Large corporations will automate email campaigns and have more consistent timing.
The assumption that companies with a boatload of cash and resources are more sophisticated at marketing than the little guys isn't true in many cases. We've seen a lot of Fortune500 brands NOT communicate with their existing customer base or hot prospects for over a year at a time. By that time, many people forget that they ever opted-in to a list or were interested in the first place. Why does this happen? Good email marketing requires planning and implementation and a lot of people don't want to do the work or outsource it even though the return on investment could be better than any other marketing efforts. More corporations will automate their email campaigns with dynamic data based on the customer life-cycle and past behavior.

6. Convergence in mobile technology (voice and email) devices will be affordable for the masses.
Many of us didn't buy the Nokia PDA/cell phone this year because it was too bulky and too damn expensive ($399). Look for these devices to be under $200 in '05.

5. RSS feeds will be promoted heavily; Blogs taken for granted
A major internet marketing publication selected "Blog" as the word that defined 2004. Blogs are indeed great repositories of up-to-date info on a specific topic, but you have to seek for that information (pull technology). RSS pushes the information (typically news and updated content) you want to receive to you. Be careful to monitor the content in your RSS feeds as deviant parties may start looking to this relatively untapped medium to market their messages.

4. Marketers will become less sexually active in '05.
U.S. Census data has shown a couple surprising trends in '04. There has been a dramatic increase in pregnancies in 30-40 year old women in the second half of '04. The census data has shown a direct correlation between pregnancies and decreased sexual activity. Look for these affected marketers to channel their activities into sports, outdoor activities, email, social knitting, and heavy consumption. Wait, that has to do with us. Man this crystal ball we bought at WalMart is a real let down.

3. More online communication devices for your pets.
Pets.com has been out for years and will stay out. However, several Taiwanese device manufacturers have come up with some amazing technologies for you to communicate remotely with your dog or cat. The keyboards (called PawPads) are customized to the paw size and shape of your cat or dog. The price on these doggie and kitty email devices are a bit prohibitive ($9,500), but will most likely be mainstream by 2010.

2. High tech company acquisitions + IPOs will dominate headlines, not politics.
Elections are over and the economy is slowly coming back. In '04, politics were king, and the Internet took a backseat despite its history-making role in educating voters through the candidates web sites, blogs, email campaigns, and search engine presence (see eROI Vote site). In 2005, look for more IPOs from the next Salesforce.com or Google in new niches. Even more common will be consolidation between Internet software companies and high-tech as a whole - valuations will remain attractive for buyers in '05.

1. Marketers will do more deliberate online viral marketing campaigns.
With the success of viral marketing efforts like Burger King's "Subservient Chicken", ACT's "White House West" starring Will Ferrell, and JibJab's "This Land is Your Land" in 2004 (see eROI Viral Marketing site), more and more marketers will try to replicate this success. The key to viral marketing success begins with creating something unique, authentic, and hopefully funny. The next step is to promote the site or online media in a very informal manner where you encourage the recipient to spread the word if they feel it's worthy of passing along to their friends. Unique, authentic, funny, and genuine – in 2005.